China turns up heat in maritime heart of SE Asia   
  
Faced with expansive and increasingly assertive Chinese claims to control as much as 80 per cent of the South China Sea in the maritime heart of South-East Asia, ASEAN countries and major user nations, including Australia, are aligning – based on shared concerns at China’s actions. (The Canberra Times)

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Japan muddies water in South China Sea debate   
   

The ongoing wrangle over jurisdiction of the disputed South China Sea took a new turn on Tuesday with Philippine President Benigno Aquino III meeting Japanese Prime Minister Yoshikiko Noda in Tokyo. (The Irrawaddy)

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Vietnam’s power shift  
     

Vietnam’s rapid industrialization will necessitate a shift in the way the country generates power, while balancing economic and environmental needs. (Industrial Fuels and Power)

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ASEAN responds to concerns about regional food security   
   

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has pushed food security to the top of its agenda amid continuing global concerns over the volatility of food prices and food supplies. (The Nation)

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Trade currency settlement   
   

In May, the finance ministers of Korea, China and Japan agreed to study the feasibility of using their own currencies to settle transactions among the three countries. The agreement, reached on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank’s annual conference in Hanoi, drew attention as using local currencies in trade settlements would provide huge benefits to the three neighboring countries. (The Korea Herald)

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The secret to Asia’s long-term prosperity? Improving roles of women at work           


No one can dispute the strides Asia has made in bringing strong economic growth to the region over the past decades, lifting income levels and reducing poverty in country after country. And yet, Asia continues to stand out for the relative neglect it shows to its greatest under-tapped resource: women. (The Global Asia)

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Threats to the realization of India’s potential   
   

For all of India’s many and weighty advantages and its present trajectory, a fatal stall cannot be ruled out. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, has India gone for the inherent virtue of socialism as the equal sharing of miseries to the inherent vice of capitalism as the unequal sharing of blessing? (The Japan Times)

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China’s Indian Ocean ‘String of Pearls’ is no military treat – at least for now   
   

With the Western world mired in a debt crisis, the rise of China’s military appears more threatening than ever. The recent launch of China’s first aircraft carrier will add to regional anxieties. But a closer examination shows that at least one aspect of China’s supposed military prowess – its alleged creation of far-ranging naval facilities, the so-called “string of pearls” strategy – can be discounted as fevered imagination. (The Jakarta Globe)

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Indonesia’s and global development   
   

The global economic recovery remains fragile and uncertain, as risks posed by high energy and food prices, unemployment, and uncertainty over sovereign debt in Europe and the US continue to cloud the horizon. (East Asia Forum)

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India’s South China Sea Warning   
   

An influential Chinese Communist Party-run newspaper has warned that ‘every means possible’ should be used to stop India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Videsh engaging in exploration projects in the South China Sea. (The Diplomat)

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Has the real Najib stood up?      

Prime Minister Najib Razak announced a package of political reforms that, if implemented, can fairly be described as historical. Combined with his related efforts in the area of economic liberalization and amending the constitution of the ruling political party, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), Najib could very well be defining his legacy as a reformer. (CogitAsia)

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Beijing’s overemphasis on stability risks damaging government’s legitimacy      

Weiwen policies were often successful when first applied earlier in the Hu-Wen era. Involving carrots as well as stick, weiwen is thought of in public security circles in China as a more nuanced set of policy instruments than the repressive yanda (“strike hard”) measures of the past. (The Jakarta Globe)

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Vietnam and the Philippines: Assertiveness in the South China Sea      

At a time when Chinese power is inchoate, Vietnam and the Philippines are becoming increasingly assertive in the South China Sea. China has tried both the ‘carrot’ and ‘stick’ approach, and neither has been successful. (East Asia Forum)

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Burma’s neighbors can help it escape the past      

The advent of military rule in 1962 set Burma on a path of political and social experimentation that created both economic instability as well as structural rigidity. These features continue to characterize the economy of present-day Burma. (The Jakarta Globe)

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US Military/Security Paper on China – Messages for India and APR      

The Pentagon annual report to the US Congress Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2011” released to the public in August this year is a lesson how meticulously the Americans study China. Of course, more sensitive issues are not discussed in the open report, but there are pointers that need to be picked up by India and other Asian countries and reflect on them actively on a larger canvas. (The South Asia Analysis Group)

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Asia’s new global crisis      

The renewed global economic slowdown is putting pressure on Asian countries to review their export-based growth model and their vulnerabilities to the inflows and outflows of capital. (The Malaysia Star)

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Is China’s economic miracle a mirage?      

Doubts are beginning to be heard about how sustainable is China’s economic miracle, particularly the relentless emphasis on exports and investment spending by hundreds of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and local governments. Beijing, of course, has its supporters, including banker turned academic Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia as well as a faculty member of Yale University, who asserts that China is different, bigger, special, the superpower that will defeat all the odds. (The Japan Times)

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Deep Danger: Competing Claims in the South China Sea       

The waters of the South China Sea are dotted with hundreds of atolls, reefs, and small islands—only one of which has sufficient fresh water to qualify, under traditional international law, as capable of supporting human habitation. Nonetheless, these land features and the 1.35 million square miles of water that surround them are the subject of competing territorial claims by China and Taiwan (whose claims appear to encompass the entire South China Sea and all of its land features) and by five Southeast Asian countries (Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia, though Indonesia’s claim is limited to waters at the sea’s extreme southern tip).                                                  (The Viet-Studies/The Current History)

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Reforming SOE’s      

Indonesia is at a fascinating crossroads. On the one hand, the country can choose a path toward long-term sustainable development, and on the other, high but potentially short-term growth rates. In the real world, to be in two places at the same time is impossible, but Indonesia aspires to do just that. (The Jakarta Globe)

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US-China power play puts heat on ASEAN   
  
The one-page guidelines agreed to last month are unlikely to arrest the deepening security dilemma among key claimants. They reportedly referred only to the possible implementation of uncontroversial ‘joint cooperation activities’, they are characteristically non-binding, and they required Southeast Asian state to drop their long held assertion of ASEAN’s right to develop a common position on the issue vis-à-vis China. (East Asia Forum)

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Poverty and growth in the Philippines   
   

Despite the Philippine economy having enjoyed one of its best growth periods in recent years, the poverty continues to rise, putting a strain on achieving the Millennium Development Goal targets the country has vowed to achieve come 2015. (East Asia Forum)

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Test awaits Mr. Noda’s Cabinet  
  

New Prime Minister Yoshikiko Noda inaugurated his Cabinet Friday. Its lineup and the composition of the Democratic Party of Japan leadership point to his utmost efforts to ensure unity in the ruling party, which has suffered from conflict between forces supporting former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa and forces opposing the spread of his influence. The Cabinet lineup does not seem strong enough to give out a clear message as to what kind of nation the new administration would like to build. (The Japan Times)

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Putting Yingluck’s populist foreign policy in perspective      

The Yingluck’s Shinawatra administration has initiated the country’s first large-scale populist foreign policy, with a purported emphasis on common Thais. Included in the government’s policy statement as one of its 10 top priorities is the betterment of people’s knowledge of common border problems and of the impact of globalization, all with the aim of forging a consensus on foreign policy. (The Nation)

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Burma’s new leader could emulate B.J. Habibie  
  

Comparisons are often made between Indonesia and Burma; two Southeast Asian nations where the militarization of politics, democracy struggles, their achievements and transitional phases, have defined their people’s recent histories. (The Jakarta Post)

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Can China defend a “core interest” in the South China Sea?  

De´ja` vu surrounds reports that Beijing has claimed a ‘‘core interest’’ in the South China Sea. High-ranking Chinese officials reportedly asserted such an interest during a private March 2010 meeting with two visiting U.S. dignitaries, Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, Jeffrey Bader.              (The Washington Quarterly)

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Idul Fitri: Festivity of charity and forgiveness      

Here comes Idul Fitri again, when more than 15 million people go on mudik (homecoming) to celebrate the day of forgiveness. After a full month of fasting, Muslims will celebrate the post-Ramadhan (Idul Fitri) festivities. Borrowed from Arabic, id means to be back and al-fitri means pure, nature, or disposition, suggesting a kind of “back-to-nature” status. According to Islam, a newborn is clean without any original sins. Islam teaches that naturally and biologically a newborn has the disposition to be good. (The Jakarta Post)

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May the best Tan win: Singapore’s presidential election     

Singapore will hold its first direct presidential election in 18 years on August 27, setting the stage for the most competitive presidential race in the city-state’s history. This race comes at a crucial juncture in Singapore politics. It is taking place after parliamentary elections in May in which the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) lost an unprecedented six seats to the opposition Workers Party, its poorest election performance since independence in 1965. (CogitAsia)

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DPJ leadership hopefuls must tackle foreign diplomacy, long neglected after disaster     

Since the triple disasters of March 11, Japan has paid little attention to foreign diplomacy. As the administration of Prime Minister Naoto Kan struggled to begin rebuilding the devastated Tohoku region, a political battle was waged by ruling and opposition blocs over whether or not Kan should resign. Bringing an end to the stagnation that such political warfare has created and normalizing the course of Japan’s foreign policy is one of the most important challenges that awaits the next prime minister. (The Mainichi)

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Malaysia’s 2015 test  

In 2015, Malaysian leadership and foreign policy will be judged by a benchmark defined not by Kuala Lumpur, but ASEAN’s leaders. In less than five years, Malaysia will assume the chair of ASEAN, and will be accountable for ASEAN’s delivery on goals set by the region’s heads of state outlined n the ASEAN Charter. (CogitAsia)

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Asian leadership and the global economic crisis      

In East Asia, as elsewhere in the world, the risks that we continue to face in recovery from the global financial crisis, economically and politically, are a consequence not only of failure in national governance but also in the architecture of international governance, including regional architecture. (East Asia Forum)

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Myanmar: Suu Kyi  and the government      

Is Suu Kyi becoming bold to test the patience of the government? Why did Aung Kyi, the minister fro labour ad social welfare acting as liaison officer for the government, have two meetings with Suu Kyi within two weeks? Is there a thaw in the offing? Will the National League for Democracy (NLD) register itself as a political party? These and many more questions have cropped up as the events unfolded in Myanmar since the beginning of July 2011. (The South Asia Analysis Group)

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Yudhoyono needs to be bold to take Indonesia forward       

Indonesia’s economic resilience and recently announced 2012 state budget are the stuff that strapped Western government can only dream about, given today’s global uncertainty. The government is projecting economic expansion of 6.7 per cent and wants to spend Rp 168.1 trillion ($19.67 billion) – or 19 per cent more that this year – on building roads, railways and airports.        (The Jakarta Globe)

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Can Yingluck fix Cambodia ties?      

The election of Yingluck Shinawatra has raised hopes that Thailand can improve its prickly ties with Cambodia. But will the Thai Army get in the way?      (The Diplomat)

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The East Asia Summit and regional financial cooperation     

One of the priority area for regional cooperation at the East Asian Summit (EAS) has been finance. At the last EAS Leaders’ summit in Hanoi last year this area was given special attention along with education, energy, disaster management and avian flu prevention.       (East Asia Forum)

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Consolidating East Asia Cooperation: A New Role for Northeast Asia      

The balance of power in East Asia is shifting, presenting new risks to regional stability. In order to mitigate these risks and maintain and strengthen regional peace, stability, and prosperity, it is critical that regional cooperation be consolidated.                                        (Japan Center for International Exchange)

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The South China Sea is the future of conflict         

Europe is a landscape; East Asia a seascape. Therein lies a crucial difference between the 20^th and 21^st centuries. The most contested areas of the globe in the last century lay on dry land in Europe, particularly in the flat expanse that rendered the eastern and western borders of Germany artificial and exposed to the inexorable march of armies. But over the span of the decades, the demographic and economic axis of the Earth has shifted measurably to the opposite end of Eurasia, where the spaces between major population centers are overwhelmingly maritime. (Foreign Policy)

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Thai diplomacy: Where personal, national affairs can’t mix      

Once again personal ad national agenda clashes head-on once Surapong tohwichachaikul, MP from Chianmai, was named foreign minister last week. Focus has been zeroed in on his perceived role whether he will speak on behalf of the country or Thaksin Shinawatra. Lots of questions were also raised due to his close relationship to the former prime minister, who was sentenced to two-year jail term on conflict of interests. Lingering doubts over the minister’s intention would have dire consequences for Thailand’s external relations and its place in the world. (The Nation)

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Rising tensions in Asia Pacific region  

Celebrating the 84t anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Liberation Army Daily (LAD, August 01), the military mouthpiece carried a very important editorial that could have far reaching implications for the Asia Pacific Region (APR). After the usual observation on the Party’s absolute leadership over the army, boosting party building within the army, army-people relationship, the editorial made the following observations. It called on the PLA officers and soldiers to enhance risk awareness and to be mindful of their mission, as the international military competition becomes increasingly fierce and modern wars are fast evolving from mechanical wars to information-based ones. (The South Asia Analysis Group)

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Bold Bid for Peace        

Was it improper for President Aquino to have flown all the way to Tokyo to meet secretly with Murad Ebrahim, the leader of the secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front? Perhaps. The reactions from certain quarters have the ring of predictable Monday-morning quarterbacking. (The Inquirer)

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European Unrest and Lessons for Asia      

The violence and protests that have wracked Europe this summer – the angry popular demonstrations in Greece, the “indignant” marches in Madrid, the murderous  mayhem in Oslo and the wave of riots across London – are firm reminders that order and stability cannot be guaranteed by advanced political systems. Democracy does not guarantee the safety of citizens. (The Jakarta Globe)

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US-China power play puts heat on ASEAN   
      
AFTER nearly a year of tensions over conflicting territorial claims, East Asian waters have calmed significantly. At last month's Asean meetings, China and South-east Asia agreed on guidelines for implementing the 2002 Declaration of Conduct to govern activities in the South China Sea. (Viet Studies/The Straits Times)

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Asia-Pacific poses multiple challenges  
  

The US returned to the region last year with its new Asia-Pacific strategy to build a “gooselike security pattern” to tackle China’s rise. The US places itself as the leader of Asia Pacific, followed by the US-Japan and US-ROK alliances. The third tier of the US’ security ring is its relationship with allies such as Australia, the Philippines and Thailand, and the fourth is its ties with Vietnam, Indonesia and India. (The China Daily)

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Is China a neighbor to Indonesia?   

One might wonder why this question should be asked. More importantly, does it matter? This article is about Indonesia sharing maritime areas with other countries. (The Jakarta Post)

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Vietnam’s Cabinet: Three Key Ministers Reveal Policy Directions      

A look at three key ministers elected by the Vietnamese National Assembly last week – Phung Quang Thanh at Defense, Vuong Dinh Hue at Finance, and Pham Binh Minh at Foreign Affairs-reveal the pillars of Vietnam’s core policies going forward. (CogitAsia)

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Positive Steps in South China Sea      

Last month in Bali, China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries agreed on a set of guidelines for implementing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, signed in Phnom Penh in 2002. Although the one-page set of guidelines hasn’t been published, it’s largely believed to be an interim process toward an eventual code of conduct in the South China Sea. There has even been talking about creating such a code later this year at the East Asia Summit.                  (The Diplomat)

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ASEAN integration: a long way to go      

Following the success of the 44th ASEAN ministerial meeting, leaders of the group’s 10 member states need to ask questions about the goals of integration and to what extent the concept of integration is to be developed. One of the considerable facts that should not be overlooked by the ASEAN countries is the case of the European Union (EU), the leading regional organization of states, which is currently challenged by its most promising realm: the economy. (The Jakarta Post)

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South China Sea: be aware of undercurrent   
It was amazing that given their cordial ties, China and ASEAN took almost a decade to agree on the guidelines for their conducts over the disputed South China Sea. With it, they can now begin to work together on various confidence building measures and jointly proposed projects in the huge unsettled maritime territory.   (The Nation)

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Vietnam’s New Leadership and their immediate Inflation Challenge      

Vietnam’s 500-member National Assembly convened on July 21 to formally select the country’s new leadership team for the next five years. The National Assembly’s role has largely been ceremonial because the country’s leadership was already determined behind closed doors at the Communist Party Congress in January. However, political reforms have empowered the legislative branch of the government, and rumors swirled ahead of their voting that there could be some surprises. In the event, there were no such surprises. (CogitAsia)

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ARF makes a contribution  
  
After the fireworks at last year's meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the big question at this year's get-together was whether the United States and China would again clash over the South China Sea.                  (The Japan Times)

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Bringing the IMF closer to Asia      

Christine Lagarde's maiden speech as the new chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was as safe as it was predictable. Speaking to an audience of 300 at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York on Wednesday (July 27), Lagarde addressed the global challenges of sovereign debt in the United States and Europe, slowing growth in emerging markets, and social instability in the Arab world. She emphasised the core principles of the IMF she believes will keep it relevant in an increasingly interconnected world. But in that speech there was disappointingly little mention of Asia. In fact, the word China came up only once, and Asia did not get a look in at all. (ANN/The Straits Times)

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Beating the South China Sea Phoenix   

Last week, with the world watching, a sense of optimism wafted out of the Bali ASEAN Regional Forum meetings. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China agreed on ‘guidelines’ for implementing their previously agreed 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Some players, including China, hailed this as a breakthrough.            (The Diplomat)

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Sketching out a future ASEAN-NATO partnership  
    

As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enters its seventh decade and as ASEAN consolidates its regional community building ahead of and beyond 2015, the bodies have much to learn from each other.           (The Jakarta Post)

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The job nobody wants: next foreign minister   

   

The new Thai foreign minister, whoever is appointed, will face many complicated and difficult tasks as the previous government has left some “hot potatoes” for whoever takes up senior ministerial post. (The Nation)

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Philippine President Benigno Aquino’s State of the Nation Address  

Investors, foreign policy analysts, and defense planners joined Philippine citizens in listening carefully to President Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III’s second State of the Nation Address (SONA) on July 25 in Manila. These groups are assessing whether Aquino is a leader who will break the cycle of corruption, get investment flowing, expound and implement a national security strategy, and find a path to peace in Mindanao. (CSIS)

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ASEAN gets recognition, now it must act   
     
Asean centrality has moved up one notch with the Hague-based International Court of Justice mentioning Asean in its decision recently in regard to the Thai-Cambodian dispute. No wonder, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa told his Asean colleagues a few hours later at their closed-door meeting in Bali that “Asean is in the equation”. (The Nation)

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Ernest Bower Interviews Douglas Ramage, Principal Governance Adviser of AusAID in Indonesia (CSIS)

A Tale of Two Countries: Family Planning in the Philippines and Thailand   

Whenever students ask him if family planning is really essential in curbing population growth, Dr. Nibhon Debavalya, Thailand’s leading population expert, responds with a parable about Thailand and the Philippines. Interestingly, Meechai Viravaidya, the family planning and HIV-AIDS activist who received the Ramon Magsaysay Award in 1994, answers the same question with the same story. (The Inquirer)

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Vietnam’s tyranny of geography  

Some researchers liken China to a rooster, with Korea as its beak and Vietnam its leg. The analogy, while highlighting the strategic importance of Vietnam toward China’s well-being, especially in terms of security, also implies that Vietnam has long been living with the weight of China on its shoulder. The problem is that Vietnam can’t do much about it, even if it wants to. (The Diplomat)

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Shanghai Cooperation Organization has winds in its sails  

The tenth annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Astana, Kazakhstan, on June 15 was a milestone in the history of the institution. The organization comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has gained a reputation as a possible strategic rival to American and Western interests throughout Central Asia. Current signs suggest that SCO membership may increase and the organization could become a more prominent regional geopolitical actor. (Asia Pacific Bulletin)

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Law and the South China Sea   
    

To help control potential armed conflicts in the South China Sea, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has recently pressed China to conclude a Code of Conduct (COC) to replace the Declaration of Conduct (DOC) of Parties in the South China Sea that was signed between ASEAN and China in 2002. (The Diplomat)

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Indonesia among countries tightening grip on natural resources   
     

Countries from Indonesia and India to Russia are tightening their grip on natural resources as they limit exports to build up domestic industry in a trend that will spawn many challenges to World Trade Organization rules. (The Jakarta Globe)

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