A Field Everybody Wants to Play On - and be a Referee

The year that we leave behind has brought a further increase of political, economic and strategic weight for Asia-Pacific. This shift has been primarily caused by the resilience of Asian economies to the Global Financial Crisis - by their uninterrupted, strong growth.  Furthermore, this trend is likely to continue in 2011: as analysts predict, the growth in emerging economies, whose major engines are China, India and their Southeast Asian neighbors, is expected to be four times bigger than that of the developed world. Without any doubt, one of the highlights of 2010 was the historic moment at which China surpassed Japan as the second largest world economy.

RI’s leadership in ASEAN: A positive contribution   

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said at the London School of Economics and Political Science on March 31, 2009: “We in ASEAN can no longer afford to be allergic to democracy and human rights”. These new principles will be Indonesia’s objective during its chairmanship of ASEAN in 2011. (The Jakarta Post)

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Regional trade in South Asia   

South Asia also possesses a bright future due to the constant emergence of new entrepreneurial groups in the region. This new generation is more skillful, updated with new technology, with an aptitude for harnessing regional opportunities and better educated to address the challenges of increasing volatility in this globalized world. India being the biggest and fastest-growing economy in the region should help in tapping this potential in the region. (My Republica)

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Vietnam: Balancing growth and stability in a more market-oriented economy   

A new generation of leadership is expected to emerge from the 11^th national congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party in January 2011. Both the President and the Secretary-General of the Vietnamese Communist Party are expected to be stepping down, and a question mark hovers over the re-appointment of the current Prime Minister, Mr Nguyen Tan Dung.   (East Asia Forum)

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Watch out for Russian wild card in Asia-Pacific   

Just before we were tucking into Christmas turkey and plum pudding, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev met his Indian counterpart Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi to reaffirm what the Russian leader called a "privileged partnership" between the two countries. (The Australian)

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Korea and ASEAN pursue future strategic direction   

South Korea is gaining increasing respect as a middle power that can use its strengths to help Southeast Asia develop and also serve as a counterweight to China. (Bangkok Post)

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What is Beijing willing to do to secure oil and gas supplies?   

China's dependence on increasing amounts of oil imported from potentially unstable areas of the Middle East and Africa through vulnerable shipping channels has become an uncomfortable fact of life for the government in Beijing. (The Japan Times)

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New PM Faces Chinese Influence   

Laos' newly-appointed prime minister is more pro-Vietnam than his predecessor but may have to contend with giant neighbor China's rapidly rising influence on his country, analysts say. (Radio Free Asia)

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Managing India-China ties   

By the end of the first decade of the 21st century, a hyphenation of expectations has appeared on the international stage that India and China with their consistent economic growth can contribute in a great measure to global economic recovery. (Deccan Herald)

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Hesitation as Good Policy   

Businessmen want the Philippine government to act fast, negotiate with the European Union for a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) and warn that continued pussy-footing will cause the country to miss the opportunities that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fellow-member-countries have begun to benefit from. (The Manila Times)

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Affordable delays for the Chiang Mai Initiative?

While the worst of the Global Financial Crisis may have passed, in East Asia the economic pressures are still mounting. Regional economies are struggling with inflation, asset bubbles and now increasingly volatile exchange rate movements. One mechanism which might aid the regional economies to coordinate their exchange rate policies, to fend off currency speculation and assist with reigning in increasingly problematic ‘hot money’ flows is the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM). (East Asia Forum)

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India’s Battle Within: Coming to Grips With the Politics of Greed

In the comparisons of China and India that have become commonplace in recent years, India is often given the edge on account of its political system. India has a deep-rooted democracy, the argument goes, while China is a brittle autocracy whose government functions without transparency or accountability. Indeed, the idea of India as Asia’s democratic alternative to China was underscored during US President Barack Obama’s November visit to India, where he declared that “in Asia and around the world, India is not simply emerging; India has emerged.” (The Jakarta Globe)

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A different road forward   

Painful adjustments needed to sustain advancement in the face of anemic innovation, slow tech upgrades and social tensions. China's per-capita income, at $3,800, has surpassed the threshold for a middle-income country. But even as economists and strategists busily extrapolate its future growth path to predict when it will catch up to the United States, the mood in China became somber and subdued in 2010. Indeed, Premier Wen Jiabao sees China's growth as "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and ultimately unsustainable". (China Daily)

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As China Rises, So Does Vietnam   

One of the biggest beneficiaries of China’s rapid economic ascent is not China at all, but rather its historic rival, occasional enemy and fellow socialist neighbor to the south, Vietnam. (The New York Times)

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Japan’s 2010 National Defense Program Guidelines – Reading the Tea Leaves

On December 17, Japan's Cabinet, under the leadership of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), published Japan's ten-year defense strategy, known as the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG). In response to a rapidly transforming strategic environment, the 2010 NDPG -- the first by a non-Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government -- delineates a number of major changes. At the same time, "reading between the lines" finds that the NDPG is equally significant for what it reflects about the continuity in Japan's defense policy. (The East West Center)

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What Russia can do on North Korea   

Events over the past few weeks have underscored Moscow’s desire to play a major role in resolving the disputes between North Korea and its neighbours. But they’ve also highlighted the limits of Moscow’s influence. (The Diplomat)

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Sino-US geopolitical rivalry does not help Korean stability 
The United States government believes China needs to do more to contribute to stability on the Korean peninsula. According to this view, North Korea is highly dependent on Chinese support and Beijing should use its influence to moderate Pyongyang’s behavior. As some American and other Western observers have put it, it is time for China to start behaving like a responsible great power. But it is not likely that China will fundamentally alter its policies. (East Asia Forum)

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Détente or setting the stage for more Koreas...   

There are two competing histories being written on the Korean Peninsula right now. One school sees the crisis that has swelled since North Korea’s deadly attack last month on a South Korean island as the most dangerous in decades, perhaps since the end of the Korean War. The other sees only rhetoric and business as usual. (The Globe and Mail)

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China shown empty chair but Chinese show...

The Communist Party believes in achieving high growth rates through a market economy while relying on one party political institution to ensure social justice and peace. Political scientists are likely to point out that the system put in place by the Party has resulted in rising inequality in Chinese society and also social unrest. There is also rise in corruption not only in the Party but in the country as well. These have also triggered loss of human rights of the people. (The Brunei Times)

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India's defense policy arrives at the crossroads…

Without a realistic appraisal of defense requirements and military acquisition needs, India's rise as a major global player will remain no more than a topic of speculation. (The Japan Times)

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Indonesia’s growing economic power
In Beijing this week a group of top foreign policy professionals is being brought up to speed on developments in Southeast Asia, in a routine review of China’s interests in the region. ASEAN commands priority in Chinese diplomacy because of its anchor role in regional economic and political arrangements, because of its ongoing territorial and other political-strategic interests and because of the growing importance of China’s relations with Indonesia, at the heart of its relations with the Southeast Asian region. (East Asia Forum) 

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How to Stop the Next Korean War

For the first time in decades, a real war on the Korean Peninsula is possible. (Foreign Policy)

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Mudflow management: Lessons for S-E Asia   
The Hungarian toxic red mud spill in early October was a calamity for the people in the town of Ajka. This incident provides an important comparison with similar incidents in South-east Asia such as responses to the 2006 mud flood in Sidoarjo, Indonesia (known locally as Lumpur Sidoarjo or Lusi) and the need for precautionary measures in future development projects in Vietnam. (The Straits Times)

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New START Is Not About China  
China’s Nuclear Weapons Diversification and Modernization is not a legitimate reason to Delay Ratifying New START. (CogitAsia) 

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China’s Rethink: One Step Backward?     
China recently conceded, at least to the outside world, that in the last two years it had overstepped the boundaries of international behavior and there was an urgent need to introspect. (South Asia Analysis Group)
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Time to Think Anew and Act Anew on Myanmar (Burma) 
Myanmar (Burma) is in the news again -- thanks to Wikileaks, the recent release from house arrest of Nobel Peace Prize opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi and fallout from the November 7 controlled election billed as a step in moving toward nominal civilian rule. (Asia Pacific Bulletin)

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A Rational Suggestion Regarding North Korea 

North Korea’s artillery attack on its Southern neighbour was not – as it claimed- a justified reaction to a South Korean military exercise. Rather, it was only the latest in a series of pin-prick attacks designed to pressure and bully its southern neighbour. (East Asia Forum) 

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