A Field Everybody Wants to Play On - and be a Referee

The year that we leave behind has brought a further increase of political, economic and strategic weight for Asia-Pacific. This shift has been primarily caused by the resilience of Asian economies to the Global Financial Crisis - by their uninterrupted, strong growth.  Furthermore, this trend is likely to continue in 2011: as analysts predict, the growth in emerging economies, whose major engines are China, India and their Southeast Asian neighbors, is expected to be four times bigger than that of the developed world. Without any doubt, one of the highlights of 2010 was the historic moment at which China surpassed Japan as the second largest world economy.

The driving force of the new Asian trade and security architecture will be ASEAN, the evermore integrated group of 10 Southeast Asian nations with over 600 million people producing a $1.5 trillion GDP. Omni-enmeshment tendencies embodied in the expansion of the existing regional structures, such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), and ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting Plus (ADMM+), involving all major players in Asia-Pacific, with Russia and the United States as the latest newcomers, as well as the launching of new initiatives, such as the US$120 billion worth Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) aimed at providing the regional financial safety net, are the strongest testimony of the rising importance of this part of the world.

However, as this path of growing importance is turning into a modern multi-lane highway, the drivers are facing an increasing number of challenges. If we can judge by 2010, the deity Ganesha will continue to test them. Numerous incidents, mainly related to disputed offshore maritime areas in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea - not to mention the situation around ever-present prodigal brother North Korea - clearly indicate that China is ready to be more assertive and test the existing order in the Asia-Pacific region, which has been dominated by the U.S. for decades. Consequently, the tension between attempts to incorporate China in the existing order - the soft-balancing scenario preferred by her Asia-Pacific neighbors - or create a new one, more accommodating to the Middle Kingdom, will likely mark the foreseeable future.

How are these tectonic shifts viewed from Eastern Europe, and what is its place in this new geopolitical reality? Relations between this region, particularly its Southeastern part - better known under its not too prestigious name, the Balkans - and especially Southeast Asia, are still far from their potential. Eastern Europe, excluding Russia, has over 200 million inhabitants creating a GDP similar to that of ASEAN 10, is blessed with fertile ground as well as resources, and is strategically located between developed Western Europe and Asia. Since the fall of communism 20 years ago, despite many serious problems, the countries of the region have undergone structural reforms that considerably increased their quality of leaving and international stature.  As a result of that process, the leading East European countries have joined the EU during the first decade of the 21^st century, while the countries of the Western Balkans will join it in the forthcoming years. However, while undergoing the painful transition process, having their eyes focused on the West, these countries neglected to grasp the intensity of changes that have occurred on the other side of the globe: the rapid transformation of Asian societies , the size of their economic growth - the combined GDP of the Asia-Pacific countries is now comparable to that of the EU - as well as the extent of the regional economic integration manifested in mushrooming of free trade agreements, with possible completion of the over-arching Trans-Pacific Partnership in not-so-distant future. Taking into account all aforementioned positive changes, as well as major technological advancement and ever easier travelling, the main reason for the low levels of inter-regional cooperation could be rather a mental distance, than the obvious physical.

This mental distance points to a need for enhancing knowledge of the breadth and depth of developments taking place at both sides of the world, particularly in Southeast Asia, which has been perceived for decades as an origin of cheap resources, as well as agricultural and textile products. The aforementioned insight has been the driving force behind creating this blog, whose goal is to contribute to bridging the existing gap mainly by informing the Eastern European audience about vibrant Asian societies. A mixture of selected news and articles, as well as exclusive contributions from prominent authors, shading a particular light on the relations between the two regions, should spark debate on hot issues and lead to better mutual understanding. Policy-makers, analysts, journalists and the business community should find this blog particularly useful, but all interested in Asia’s developments will hopefully find it exciting as well. However, the blog will fulfill its mission only if you, the readers, actively participate and contribute to the quality of discussion. Therefore, we welcome you to join this flight which hopefully will have the intensity as propelled by the strength of Garuda’s wings. (Jovan Jovanovic/From the Epicentre)