Will the (Six)Party Resume?   

After an extremely tense ending to 2010, one that brought the two Koreas to the brink of war, in the first days of 2011 East Asia has experienced unusually intense diplomatic activity – Mr. Bosworth, President’s Obama special envoy for North Korea traveled to Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing, Chinese and Japanese Foreign Ministers visited the U.S., while the U.S. Defense Secretary held talks in China.  One of the major topics discussed was how to prevent further escalation of the conflict in Northeast Asia. These meetings served as a preparation ground for Chinese President’s Hu visit to the U.S., beginning January 19.

When the Presidents of the two most powerful nations in the world come to the agenda item “North Korea”, they will address the issue of whether to resume the Six-Party Talks. China strongly supports re-igniting this mechanism which she initiated in 2003, and that went into recess five years later. To remind the readers, in this five year period, two agreements were signed (in Sept. 2005, and Feb. 2007), according to which North Korea agreed to abandon all nuclear weapons and programs, allow IAEA to conduct necessary monitoring, and return to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In exchange, the other parties (U.S., China, South Korea, Japan and Russia), promised to provide aid and normalize relation with Pyongyang.  However, North Korea did not live up with the promises - she conducted two nuclear tests, and launched several long-range missiles. After diplomatic wrestling, these tests provoked two U.N. Security Council resolutions that introduced sanctions against the communist Korea.

Having this in mind, one cannot be surprised with the lukewarm U.S. and South Korean reaction to the latest North Korea’s diplomatic “peace offensive”  for the unconditional resumption of talks, since it is seen as a well-known scenario of increasing tensions when the need for aid rises. However, despite this well grounded skepticism, many signs point to the outcome that would lead to resumption of the Six-Party Talks. Two major players in Asia-Pacific, China and U.S., have well grounded interests in continuing the talks. The first would like to repair the damage to her image brought by several conflicts in the offshore maritime zones that raised eyebrows in neighboring countries and made them wonder what China’s true intentions are. By bringing the parties to the table, and contributing to some positive results, China would demonstrate that she is a constructive actor, genuinely interested in the regional stability. On the other hand, U.S. finds itself in a more sensitive position since it doesn’t want either to sideline its ally South Korea, nor to send a wrong signal to Iran and other “rogue states” that belligerence could pay off. However, with little improvement of situation in several hotbeds around the world, U.S. would eagerly welcome positive developments in this increasingly important part of the world.

Other actors also have their clear calculations in easing tensions: after severing relations with China last year, Japan’s ruling DPJ would rather return to its more natural, reconciliatory foreign policy, while Russia is interested in stability in Northeast Asia in order to gain a stronger footing there and combine it with shifting its weight towards the country’s Far East. Finally, the directly involved actors, the two Koreas, have their own vested interests. Kim Jong Il’s goal is to peacefully conduct the transition of power to his son Kim Jong-Un, and in stability welcome the upcoming centennial of his father’s birth and dedicate him a “strong, prosperous state” in 2012. On the other hand, the conservative government in South Korea probably finds itself in a most sensitive internal situation having to save face and avoid accusations of being responsible for worsening the situation by leaving the liberal engagement policy for the no-aid-until-denuclearization. Therefore, being exposed to both external and internal pressures to ease his stand, it is expected that President Lee would adopt a “third way” for embracing bold engagement with the North on the basis of a strong security posture. Latest military built-up - acquiring additional long-range missiles and submarines – testifies for the later part of this equation.

Despite the afore-described situation, a majority of analysts predict an extremely rocky 2011 expecting a range of provocations coming from North Korea, mainly related to securing the desired transition of power from father to son. Another nuclear test is the most frequently mentioned scenario, but a wide range of incidents is also given a high probability. However, since the intelligence failures are a common place regarding developments in North Korea, one wouldn’t be surprised if these analysts would be wrong again. Having in mind Chinese desire to reconfirm constructiveness, as well as the fact that the survival of the North Korean regime to a great extent depends on her, one would rather expect a relatively peaceful year at the Korean Peninsula with the continuation of the Six-Party Talks that would not bring substantial breakthroughs, but would serve as a confidence-building mechanism for easing tensions. Taking into account that China has already practically “blessed” “the new leadership” in Pyongyang by inviting it to visit Beijing this year, as well as vague U.S and South Korea’s formulations on preconditions that North Korea has to meet in order to restart the talks (demonstrate "seriousness of purpose" and “exhibit sincerity”) could only lead to the conclusion that the Six-Party mechanism would probably resume soon. However, the leaders of these six countries should also think more seriously of making full use of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in the future, a region-wide security dialogue to which Pyongyang adhered by signing the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2008.

(Jovan Jovanovic/From the Epicenter)