Japan’s Tragedy – Will China Opt for Less to Gain More?   
   

The megaquake which recently hit Japan not only caused a gargantuan triple tragedy (earthquake, tsunami, radiation), but could also provoke tectonic geopolitical shifts in the entire region. The crucial question that the tragedy has tabled is how and who will shape the future regional architecture. In other words, will China full heartedly help Japan’s recovery, assume more responsibilities, and direct its forces towards building a genuine community of Asian nations, or will it try to take advantage of Japan’s hardship and use its weakened position for proceeding with more assertive policies.

Relations between China and Japan have always been a litmus test for other countries in the neighborhood. The rapprochement between these two Asian giants that took place in the second half of the last decade had a positive impact on accelerating the integration processes and deepening the relations in the Asian part of the Pacific Rim. However, last year’s deterioration of China-Japan relations, along with other maritime conflicts in the region involving China, as well as the demonstration of its new military might, clearly exposed the fragility of the existing regional architecture. The protracted Chinese assertiveness would inevitable increase tensions and open up room for outsiders, predominantly the United States, to increase their presence in the region and, in concert with the alerted countries, try to balance the raising Middle Kingdom.

As already noted, the tri-headed monster tragedy came at a time of growing mistrust between China and Japan. According to the 2010 joint survey conducted by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun and China’s official Xinhua News Agency, 87 percent of Japanese respondents consider China to be untrustworthy, while 79 percent of the Chinese respondents had the same opinion of Japan. Over the course of just one year these numbers skyrocketed by almost 20 per cent points on both sides. The source of Chinese distrust is mainly the perception that Japan did not distance itself enough from the atrocities committed in the 1930s and 1940s, during the occupation. Such a perception has only been strengthened by Japanese officials’ regular visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine, which honors, among others, the imperial soldiers who died fighting the Chinese. On the other hand, Chinese recent assertiveness in the South China Sea and, particularly, the East China Sea related to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, prompted an overwhelming number of Japanese to feel increasingly uneasy towards China.

China and Japan have already missed an opportunity to use another similar tragedy to set aside their differences for a longer period of time. In 2008, when a 7.9-magnitude earthquake hit Sichuan Province, and killed some 70,000 people, the Japanese army was the first foreign aid and rescue team allowed into China. Moreover, Japanese corporations, such as Panasonic, considerable contributed to relief efforts. Unfortunately, this clear expression of solidarity did not have a long-lasting impact on improving bilateral relations.

Hopefully, the aftermath of the last tragedy would bring a better outcome. Indeed, the first signs could fill us with some optimism. The Chinese Prime Minister Wen was among the first world leaders who expressed “deep sympathy” to the people of Japan and offered “whatever aid is necessary”. This statement was followed by quick departure of Chinese rescue teams to Japan, and a trilateral meeting of the Foreign Ministers of China, Japan and South Korea in which these three countries agreed to boost cooperation in the nuclear safety field.

The upcoming months will bring several other opportunities where the regional cooperation could be further strengthened – the trilateral summit (probably to be held in May), and the October East Asian Summit, hosted by Indonesia, are clearly the most important among them. A Chinese responsible handling of the crisis, by embracing a regional leadership role, could turn the terrible tragedy into an opportunity to positively reshape and build a stable and inclusive regional architecture. Such an approach would inevitable increase Chinese soft power, and, in the long run, bring much bigger gains than applying assertive policies.

(Jovan Jovanovic/From the Epicenter)