US-China power play puts heat on ASEAN   
  
The one-page guidelines agreed to last month are unlikely to arrest the deepening security dilemma among key claimants. They reportedly referred only to the possible implementation of uncontroversial ‘joint cooperation activities’, they are characteristically non-binding, and they required Southeast Asian state to drop their long held assertion of ASEAN’s right to develop a common position on the issue vis-à-vis China. (East Asia Forum)

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Consolidating East Asia Cooperation: A New Role for Northeast Asia      

The balance of power in East Asia is shifting, presenting new risks to regional stability. In order to mitigate these risks and maintain and strengthen regional peace, stability, and prosperity, it is critical that regional cooperation be consolidated.                                        (Japan Center for International Exchange)

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The South China Sea is the future of conflict         

Europe is a landscape; East Asia a seascape. Therein lies a crucial difference between the 20^th and 21^st centuries. The most contested areas of the globe in the last century lay on dry land in Europe, particularly in the flat expanse that rendered the eastern and western borders of Germany artificial and exposed to the inexorable march of armies. But over the span of the decades, the demographic and economic axis of the Earth has shifted measurably to the opposite end of Eurasia, where the spaces between major population centers are overwhelmingly maritime. (Foreign Policy)

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US-China power play puts heat on ASEAN   
      
AFTER nearly a year of tensions over conflicting territorial claims, East Asian waters have calmed significantly. At last month's Asean meetings, China and South-east Asia agreed on guidelines for implementing the 2002 Declaration of Conduct to govern activities in the South China Sea. (Viet Studies/The Straits Times)

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Asia-Pacific poses multiple challenges  
  

The US returned to the region last year with its new Asia-Pacific strategy to build a “gooselike security pattern” to tackle China’s rise. The US places itself as the leader of Asia Pacific, followed by the US-Japan and US-ROK alliances. The third tier of the US’ security ring is its relationship with allies such as Australia, the Philippines and Thailand, and the fourth is its ties with Vietnam, Indonesia and India. (The China Daily)

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Why the South China Sea is turning more turbulent   
   

A US-China military rivalry may be behind China's recent aggressiveness in the South China Sea. On Sunday, Vietnam claims China cut the underwater cables of one of its survey ships. (The Christian Science Monitor)

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China draws a line – but an Apocalypse in the making?     

One would think with 60 years of all weather friendship, Pakistani leaders (especially in the military and intelligence), would have learnt to read their Chinese counterparts. Even more important, Pakistani experts must understand that the Chinese are masters at making very important statements by not making those statements. (South Asia Analysis Group)

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All eyes on Gilani’s visit to China   
  

All eyes in Pakistan are on the four-day visit to China from May 17, 2011, by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani. The dates of the visit were finalized some weeks ago to enable him to participate in the year-long observance of the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. It has since acquired special significance in the eyes of Pakistani analysts as it is taking place at a time when Pakistan has come under severe criticism in the US for failing to detect the presence of Osama  bin Laden for over five years at Abbottabad, the cradle of the Pakistan Army, where the Pakistan Military Academy is located. (South Asia Analysis Group)

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Japan’s disaster may accelerate realignment in the East   
  

The coastline of Japan is not the only shift that will have been caused by the earthquake and tsunami of March 11. As significant as the material damage, which appears to be almost incalculable, and as worthy of attention as the economic damage, also titanic, is a potential shift in the international alliances and strategies in the Far East, particularly among China, Japan and the US and its allies. (American Thinker)

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Russian naval visit a message for Beijing    
  

Just as the Chinese navy uses warships returning from anti-piracy patrols in the Indian Ocean to fly the flag in Southeast Asian ports, the Russian Pacific Fleet returns to Vietnam early next month to highlight one of the region's most intriguing - and enduring - strategic relationships. (The South China Morning Post)

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ASEAN poised for skillful maneuvering  

Pitted between major powers competing for a bigger clout in Asia, Indonesia and other ASEAN countries are poised for skillful maneuvering to ensure no one power becomes too dominant in the region. To attain such a reality, Indonesia, the current chair of ASEAN, proposed the maintenance of so-called dynamic equilibrium where countries could engage with one another in a mutually beneficial and peaceful way. (The Jakarta Post)

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Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay: Geopolitical power in play  

The large Vietnamese naval base at Cam Ranh Bay, once a symbol of Cold War rivalry in South-east Asia, is set to assume an important role in the unfolding geopolitical competition between China and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. (The Straits Times)

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The China ‘threat’ as a blessing   
  

Geography is destiny - perhaps the most inevitable of all. China is the Asian country with the greatest number of bordering neighbors and, large or small, has less than idyllic relations with all of them. Many are unstable; others are ambitious and eye China's economic and political growth with fear and suspicion; and most have a history of vassalage to China from which they have freed themselves only in the past century. They all tend to worry that China, once again a superpower, will try to force them back into bondage. (Asia Times Online)

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The China Hedge   
   

China’s just released National Defense White Paper criticizes America for reinforcing anti-Chinese alliances in the region, expanding its military presence, and continuing to sell arms to Taiwan—all while reaffirming that PLA budget increases are for purely defensive purposes. White Papers are meant to offer improved information about strategic and military postures. But like previous white papers, it does little to explain China’s still poor record of military-to-military exchanges or its refusal to enhance transparency despite the document’s claims to do so.                     (The National Interest)

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Nervous Neighbors: China Finds a Sphere of Influence   
   

In many respects, it is the structure, principles, and process of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations—the now ten-member economic organization formed by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand in 1967—that make it vulnerable to Chinese influence as Beijing flexes its regional muscle. With its amorphous objectives of economic growth, social progress, and regional stability, ASEAN has proven so weak that it poses an opportunity rather than a threat to China. (World Affairs)

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Japan’s Tragedy – Will China Opt for Less to Gain More?   
   

The megaquake which recently hit Japan not only caused a gargantuan triple tragedy (earthquake, tsunami, radiation), but could also provoke tectonic geopolitical shifts in the entire region. The crucial question that the tragedy has tabled is how and who will shape the future regional architecture. In other words, will China full heartedly help Japan’s recovery, assume more responsibilities, and direct its forces towards building a genuine community of Asian nations, or will it try to take advantage of Japan’s hardship and use its weakened position for proceeding with more assertive policies.

A Step Too Far: Why CPGS is the Wrong Answer to China’s Access Challenge   
    

In March 1996, the waters of the Taiwan Strait were roiled by Chinese live missile firings and massive military exercises. Washington answered Beijing’s blunt demonstration of coercive military diplomacy by promptly dispatching two aircraft carriers to the scene… Fifteen years later, the region’s tactical environment could hardly be more different.  (Asia Pacific Bulletin)

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What strategies might work in the Indian Ocean?   
   

The rise of India, and its future strategic direction, has excited interest in the options for developing regional economic and security cooperation in the Indian Ocean. (East Asia Forum)

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Cambodia’s Bumpy Development Road: Implications for US interests  
    

When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Cambodia in late 2010, she told senior Cambodian government officials "this does not look like the country I have been reading about in the press." Most first-time visitors to Phnom Penh would likely react similarly. The city hosts a vibrant society, with traffic-clogged streets, a proliferation of stylish restaurants and boutiques, and buildings under construction everywhere, many of them high-rise apartments and office blocks.                       (Asia Pacific Bulletin)

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Philippine interests, balancing act with China  

China’s decision to carry out the execution of three convicted Filipino drug “mules” is a setback, not because the Aquino government failed to secure their release. In general, the loss of any human life is tragic, and while we do not agree with the punishment to be meted out, we acknowledge that crimes were committed. Also, nothing suggests that the three Filipinos did not receive a fair trial from the Chinese courts, and as demonstrated by the visit of Vice President Jejomar Binay to China, the Philippine government did what it could. (The Manila Times)

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